Sixteen foreign journalists gathered to hear an analysis of Pennsylvania’s crucial position in the 2024 election by John Kincaid, a government and law professor. The event was held at Kirby Hall of Civil Rights on Monday.
The visit was part of “Road to the White House,” with the journalists sponsored by the U.S. Department of State — they toured the country from Oct. 30 to Nov. 7.
“The whole world is watching the election,” said Miranda Patterson, a media relations officer at the Washington Foreign Press Center, who helped organize the event.
In his 50-minute presentation, Kincaid, who is also the director of Lafayette’s Meyner Center for the Study of State and Local Government, outlined Pennsylvania’s status as a key battleground state. Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump were polling at approximately 49% each before Trump went on to win the state and presidency on Wednesday morning.
He particularly emphasized Northampton County’s unique position as an electoral bellwether, having correctly predicted presidential winners 89% of the time since 1912. 2024’s results mean that Northampton County once again foretold the winner.
Kincaid predicted record turnout levels during Monday’s event, citing Trump’s ability to mobilize voters on both sides of the political spectrum.
“We’re going to see, probably in this election, a higher turnout than we saw even in the last election,” Kincaid said, also referencing the student population in Northampton County.
Indeed, estimates put final voter turnout in the county at nearly 75%, according to county data on Wednesday.
“Many of the students attending Lafayette are from out of state, and they’re registering to vote in Pennsylvania because we’re a swing state,” he continued.
During the question-and-answer session, journalists pressed Kincaid on America’s deepening political divisions. Bradley Harris, a reporter for Channel 5 News who had been covering multiple battleground states, shared stark examples of polarization he had encountered.
“I’ve spoken to one person at a Democratic event in Arizona who said if Trump gets in, she has her passport ready for her and her kids and she is leaving,” he said. “That’s how strongly she feels.”
Holmfridur Gisladottir, a reporter from Iceland, questioned whether such division was inevitable given the economic transformation of regions like the Rust Belt. Krixia Subingsubing, a reporter from the Philippines, asked about the unprecedented nature of counties threatening not to certify election results.
Kincaid emphasized that state supreme courts would likely compel certification, as “the county role is a ministerial role.”
Kasey Williams from The Observer inquired about voter turnout predictions and the county’s consistent record as a bellwether county.
Bradley Harris noted the heightened tensions he observed while covering the campaign.
“People aren’t voting because they like the candidate that they’re voting for,” he said. “They’re voting because they want to get the other candidate out.”
